MCG Reports
Personal Viewers: Poised for Growth
Key Success Factors for Consumer Adoption
Principal Researcher and Analyst: Steve Marsland
252 pages
December 2006
___________________________________________________
Key Success Factors for Consumer Adoption
Principal Researcher and Analyst: Steve Marsland
252 pages
December 2006
___________________________________________________
Table of Contents
| 1 | Executive Summary | 6 | ||
| 2 | Market Trends | 9 | ||
| 2.1 | Emergence of "Anywhere Anytime Video" | 9 | ||
| 2.2 | Clearer Consumer Requirements for Definition | 15 | ||
| 2.3 | Headsets Becoming More Mainstream | 16 | ||
| 2.4 | Personal Video Viewer pricing | 16 | ||
| 3 | Personal Viewer Success Factors | 19 | ||
| 3.1 | The Five Success Factors - the Five C's | 20 | ||
| 3.2 | Cost/Performance | 20 | ||
| 3.3 | Control Interface/Cabling | 21 | ||
| 3.4 | Comfort | 22 | ||
| 3.5 | Content | 23 | ||
| 3.5.1 | Content Availability Status 2006 | 24 | ||
| 3.5.2 | Content Availability Status Forecast for 2008 | 25 | ||
| 3.5.3 | Digital Rights Management | 27 | ||
| 3.5.4 | Evolving Fair Use of Video Files | 28 | ||
| 3.6 | Channels and Marketing Promotion | 28 | ||
| 4 | Consumer Use Model | 32 | ||
| 4.1 | Benefits of and Issues with Personal Viewers | 32 | ||
| 4.1.1 | Benefits | 32 | ||
| 4.1.2 | Issues | 35 | ||
| 4.2 | Alternatives for Use of Personal Viewers | 37 | ||
| 4.3 | Benefits vs. Issues by Type of Use | 38 | ||
| 4.4 | Alternative Consumer Value Propositions | 41 | ||
| 4.4.1 | Uses Served by Type of Personal Viewer | 41 | ||
| 4.4.2 | Degree of Use | 41 | ||
| 4.4.3 | Consumer Usage Groupings | 47 | ||
| 4.4.4 | Rate, Timing and Sequence of Consumer Acceptance | 48 | ||
| 5 | Product Opportunities for the Consumer Market | 51 | ||
| 5.1 | Personal Video Viewer | 51 | ||
| 5.1.1 | Alternative Binocular Sleek Designs | 51 | ||
| 5.2 | Gaming Viewers | 53 | ||
| 5.3 | Toy Viewers | 54 | ||
| 5.4 | Data+ Viewer | 55 | ||
| 5.5 | Sports Helmet Navigators | 56 | ||
| 5.6 | Navigation/phone display sunglasses | 57 | ||
| 6 | Cost-Effective Marketing Strategies | 58 | ||
| 7 | Personal Viewers Forecast - Base Case | 63 | ||
| 7.1 | Forecast by Market | 63 | ||
| 7.2 | Forecast by Type of Personal Viewer | 69 | ||
| 7.3 | Consumer Market Forecast by Product | 74 | ||
| 8 | The Apple All-In Scenario | 79 | ||
| 9 | Personal Viewer Forecast - Upside | 81 | ||
| 9.1 | Forecast by Market | 81 | ||
| 9.2 | Forecast by Type | 87 | ||
| 9.3 | Consumer Market Forecast by Product | 92 | ||
| 10 | Competitive Positioning | 97 | ||
| 10.1 | Overview | 97 | ||
| 10.2 | Military | 98 | ||
| 10.3 | Corporate | 100 | ||
| 10.4 | Prosumer | 101 | ||
| 10.5 | Consumer | 101 | ||
| 10.5.1 | Sports Helmet Navigators | 102 | ||
| 10.5.2 | Personal Video Viewers | 102 | ||
| 10.5.3 | Data+ Headset | 103 | ||
| 10.5.4 | Gaming Headsets | 103 | ||
| 10.5.5 | Toy Viewers | 104 | ||
| 10.5.6 | Navigation/Cell Phone Sunglasses | 104 | ||
| 11 | Potential Hurdles to Success | 106 | ||
| 11.1 | Improved Cost/Performance | 106 | ||
| 11.2 | Improved Content Access for Mobile Platforms | 107 | ||
| 11.3 | Cost-Effective Consumer Marketing and Promotion | 110 | ||
| 12 | Reviews of Latest Personal Viewers | 111 | ||
| 12.1 | Icuiti iWear | 111 | ||
| 12.2 | MicroOptical myvu | 115 | ||
| 12.3 | i-O Displays iTheater | 119 | ||
| 12.4 | Oriscape GVD310A | 121 | ||
| 12.5 | Overall Comparison of Four Personal Viewers | 124 | ||
| 13 | Microdisplays Demand Forecast - Base Case | 127 | ||
| 13.1 | Total Microdisplays | 128 | ||
| 13.2 | Color vs. Monochrome | 133 | ||
| 13.3 | Color Microdisplays | 135 | ||
| 13.4 | Monochrome Microdisplays | 140 | ||
| 13.5 | Forecast Demand by Display Technology | 145 | ||
| 14 | Microdisplay Demand Forecast - Upside | 150 | ||
| 14.1 | Total Microdisplays by Definition | 150 | ||
| 14.2 | Color vs. Monochrome | 155 | ||
| 14.3 | Color Microdisplays | 157 | ||
| 14.4 | Monochrome Microdisplays | 162 | ||
| 14.5 | Forecast Demand by Display Technology | 166 | ||
| 15 | Cost Structure and Pricing | 171 | ||
| 16 | Personal Viewer Products Listing | 173 | ||
| 17 | Personal Viewer Company Profiles | 175 | ||
| 17.1.1 | 22Moo | 176 | ||
| 17.1.2 | 3001 AD | 177 | ||
| 17.1.3 | 5DT Inc. (Fifth Dimension Technologies, Inc.) | 178 | ||
| 17.1.4 | Cybermind Interactive Nederland | 179 | ||
| 17.1.5 | Daeyang E&C | 180 | ||
| 17.1.6 | Deocom Co., Ltd. | 181 | ||
| 17.1.7 | eMagin Corporation | 182 | ||
| 17.1.8 | Headplay, Inc. | 183 | ||
| 17.1.9 | Icuiti Corporation (formerly Interactive Imaging Systems) | 184 | ||
| 17.1.10 | i-O Displays Systems, LLC | 185 | ||
| 17.1.11 | Kaiser Electro-Optics | 186 | ||
| 17.1.12 | Liteye Systems, Inc. | 187 | ||
| 17.1.13 | Lumus Ltd. | 188 | ||
| 17.1.14 | MicroOptical Corporation | 189 | ||
| 17.1.15 | Microvision, Inc. | 190 | ||
| 17.1.16 | Mirage Innovations | 191 | ||
| 17.1.17 | Motion Research Corporation | 192 | ||
| 17.1.18 | NVIS (New Virtual Imaging Systems) | 193 | ||
| 17.1.19 | Oculon Optoelectronics Inc. | 194 | ||
| 17.1.20 | Oriscape Electronic Co., Ltd. | 195 | ||
| 17.1.21 | Rimax (see also Virtual Realities, Inc.) | 196 | ||
| 17.1.22 | Saab Avitronics (formerly SaabTech) | 197 | ||
| 17.1.23 | Sensics | 198 | ||
| 17.1.24 | SEOS Ltd. (Specialized Electro Optical Services Ltd.) | 199 | ||
| 17.1.25 | Shimadzu | 200 | ||
| 17.1.26 | Tek Gear | 201 | ||
| 17.1.27 | Trivisio Technologies GmbH | 202 | ||
| 17.1.28 | Virtual Realities, Inc. (see also Rimax) | 203 | ||
| 17.1.29 | Vision Systems International, LLC | 204 | ||
| 17.1.30 | Vista Medical Technologies/Viking Systems | 205 | ||
| 17.1.31 | Virtual Research Systems, Inc. | 206 | ||
| 18 | Personal Viewer System Basics | 207 | ||
| 18.1 | Introduction | 207 | ||
| 18.2 | Near-Eye Metrics | 207 | ||
| 18.3 | System Architecture | 207 | ||
| 18.4 | Color | 208 | ||
| 18.5 | Spatial Color Systems | 208 | ||
| 18.6 | Field-Sequential Color (FSC) Systems | 209 | ||
| 18.7 | Near-Eye Value Chain | 211 | ||
| 18.7.1 | Microdisplays | 211 | ||
| 18.7.2 | LCOS Displays | 212 | ||
| 18.7.3 | Optics | 213 | ||
| 18.7.4 | Packaging | 214 | ||
| 18.7.5 | Style/Ergonomics | 215 | ||
| 18.7.6 | Electronics | 215 | ||
| 19 | Types of Personal Viewers | 221 | ||
| 19.1 | Monocular - see-around | 221 | ||
| 19.2 | Monocular - see-through | 221 | ||
| 19.3 | Binocular - sleek | 221 | ||
| 19.4 | Binocular - immersive | 223 | ||
| 19.5 | Military helmet | 223 | ||
| 20 | Personal Viewer Markets | 225 | ||
| 20.1 | Military | 225 | ||
| 20.2 | Corporate | 225 | ||
| 20.3 | Prosumer | 226 | ||
| 20.4 | Consumer | 226 | ||
| 21 | Appendix A - Personal Video Viewer Price Point Analysis | 228 | ||
| 21.1.1 | Sleek Display Technologies | 228 | ||
| 21.1.2 | Bulky Technologies | 230 | ||
| 22 | Appendix B - Human Comfort Factors | 233 | ||
| 22.1.1 | Viewing comfort | 234 | ||
| 22.1.2 | Motion comfort | 244 | ||
| 22.1.3 | Wearing comfort | 247 | ||
| 22.1.4 | Self-image comfort | 247 | ||
| 23 | Appendix C - Methodology | 250 | ||
| 24 | References | 251 | ||