MCG Reports
Microdisplay Forecast Report - Autumn 2003
Published by Insight Media and McLaughlin Consulting Group
~400 pages
September 2003
This will be updated for the 2004 Report in mid-August.
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Microdisplays are used in a wide variety of projection and near-to-eye systems, so understanding the key trends, issues, hurdles and supply chain issues is critical for product planning and development. This report provides a detailed forecast of all the microdisplay-based finished product segments along with detailed profiles on all of the microdisplay device developers and manufacturers.
This report is organized into sections:
· Microdisplay Module Forecast Section
· Microdisplay Company Profile and Assessment Section
The Microdisplay Forecast section provides a unit and revenue forecast for microdisplay modules in more than ten projection and near-to-eye application categories in five segments (Business Presentation, Home Entertainment, Monitors, Embedded Viewfinders and Headsets). The new forecast looks at the upside and downside views and identifies the key issues in each market. It then integrates those scenarios into a comprehensive look at the competitiveness of the array of microdisplay technologies and suppliers
In the Business Presentation segment, we forecast value, mainstream, premium and eCinema categories. For the Home Entertainment segment, we include a forecast for RPTV (CRT, HTPS, DLP and LCOS), direct-view CRT (>30"), plasma TV and LCD-TVs. In near-to-eye, both Embedded Viewfinder products (camcorder, camera and Internet appliance) and Head-Mounts Display (monocular and binocular) products are forecast.
Cost breakdowns of microdisplay pricing and future device needs are provided, as well as estimates of penetration of each microdisplay technology into various application segments. Extensive use of charts, tables and assumptions helps readers get a clear understanding of this complex market. A standard format for each major section is used to aid in analysis [View Detailed Forecast Format]
The Microdisplay Company Profiles and Assessment section uses a standard format for all companies too. Profiles on over 30 microdisplay development companies/groups involved in projection and near-to-eye segments are included. Key parts of the profile include an assessment of the company's strengths and weaknesses, it competitive position in the marketplace, customers, tables of product development roadmaps, current/planned production and display specs. The profiles encompass multiple microdisplay technologies and include Texas Instruments, Epson, Sony, JVC, Hitachi, Philips, Three-Five, Aurora, Kopin, Displaytech and many others. [View Detailed Company Profile Format]
Question Addressed:
- How big is the microdisplay market and how is it segmented by application, performance and price?
- What microdisplay performance and price points are required to penetrate each segment?
- What is the unit and revenue forecast for 2002-2007?
- What microdisplay size, definition, and price are required in each segment? How do the competitive technology microdisplays compare in performance? What is the projected market share by technology in each application?
- Who are the suppliers and what are they offering? Who are the major developers? What is the current status of the projects? What are their strengths and weaknesses? Who are the winners and the losers?
Key Findings:
- A perfect storm of competitive and market forces could precipitate a major shakeout of the microdisplay industry over the next two years. Rapidly declining panel prices and uncertain prospects for volume growth means revenue and profitability could shrink, squeezing marginal suppliers out. The microdisplay industry could become mature before it has barely become an adolescent industry.
- There is so much uncertainty in the market that the forecast opts for a twin scenario approach to capture the full range of outcomes.
- In the Home Entertainment segment, the optimistic forecast assumes that microdisplay projection TV is competitive and branders and integrators successfully build consumer enthusiasm. Sales of projection TV are forecasted to grow from the current level of 4M units annually to 11M in 2007 (8M RPTV plus 3M front consumer projectors). Further, microdisplay technology is expected to rapidly displace CRT technology in RPTVs (65% share by 2007).
A more conservative assessment of Home Entertainment segment calls for total growth to be slowed by the onslaught of flat panel big screens and that total RPTV unit sales will plateau at 5.5M units in 2007. Microdisplay-based RPTV sets find it difficult to displace CRT technology due to microdisplay cost and lifetime issues, resulting in microdisplay technology capturing only 40% of the smaller market in 2007.- In the business presentation segment, revenue growth has already stalled. Major IT players like HP and Dell are having an impact on prices and margins, forcing ProAV dealers to seek other services and solutions to survive. If the industry can sell its way out of the current revenue slump with growth of 26%, then units will increase from 1.7M in 2002 to 5.5M in 2007. Revenue will grow to $5.75B, just a bit ahead of current levels.
- In the conservative case, price reductions drive sales to only 4.5M units in 2007 and as a result, system revenues decrease 3% to $4.67B.
- In near to eye microdisplays there is only one real application today: electronic viewfinders (EVF) as other potential big applications continue to be elusive. Again, a conservative and optimistic forecast takes into account the various factors that could drive growth in embedded viewfinders and headsets.
- The nearly 400-page report provides a forecast of the hot TV industry as well as the other established microdisplay industries in business projection, embedded viewfinders and head-mounted display systems.
Methodology:
- To produce the forecast, we first evaluated forecasts from six other market research firms. This was used to determine the best of the best to use as a basis for each segment forecast. We then added in our knowledge and assumptions of the market to produce the forecast.
- The company profiles were produced through interviews with each company, with additional information added through interviews with customers and suppliers.
Who Should Buy and Why:
- This report is a comprehensive tool for professionals in the microdisplay, projection, and near-to-eye display industries.
- For business development professionals, the data and analysis provided can be used to forecast sales, analyze competitive positioning, and focus on opportunities. Engineering, marketing and product management will want to use the detailed product specifications, pricing, and analysis to support product positioning and technology evaluation.
Benefits:
- Insight Media is the only market research firm dedicated to tracking microdisplay technology, markets and business activities. This concentration produces more in-depth knowledge and more insight into the market.
- The forecast represents a balanced analysis of multiple sources of information - something only the biggest of companies can afford to do - and for a lot more money.
- The report's profiles contain hard to find information about company operations, plans, strategies, partners and customers - information not available anywhere else.
For more information contact Chuck McLaughlin chuck@mcgweb.com | 650 323-7155
Order Information
To order use our online order form, you may also fax a copy to us (PDF) or contact Adrienne Hefter, info@mcgweb.com, telephone 650 323 1179. MCG office hours are 9-12 and 1-5 PST.