MCG Reports

BACKGROUND

A Major Opportunity Window for Microdisplays in Big Screen TVs

Microdisplay-based rear-projection televisions (MD RPTVs) have a major window of opportunity to grow sales as high as 13M units by 2009.

Two forecast scenarios were developed – the Optimistic Case at 13M and the Conservative Case at 5M. MCG’s Opportunity Analysis shows how the MD RPTV industry can capitalize on consumer preferences to create a new market niche for Living Room Theater in the Optimistic Case. Until now Home Theater has depended upon front-projection systems requiring dedicated rooms for proper viewing. Homeowners seeking a theater-like experience in the living room or family room have had to make major compromises when using front projection, such as giving up daytime viewing.

With microdisplay RPTV, Living Room Theater can be a reality. MD RPTVs can provide a theater-like experience in a much smaller room footprint than front projection, allowing the theater experience to comfortably be installed in the living room.

The MCG study is based on a new market segmentation approach focused on “technology battlegrounds.” The big screen TV market (over 30” diagonal) is segmented into screen size ranges where distinct and unique sets of display technologies are battling for market share. Microdisplay-based rear-projection TVs (MD RPTVs) have distinct competitive advantages in specific technology battlegrounds. By leveraging these competitive advantages, MD RPTV makers can fully participate in the dramatic market growth forecast for big-screen TVs.

For a more detailed look at a typical battleground analysis from our 2004 Home Entertainment report, see: mcgweb.com/reports/he2004/battleground.htm.

“The availability of 1080p MD RPTVs, high-quality signal processing and increasing HD content means consumers can now for the first time watch their big screens close enough to achieve a Home Theater experience. This shrinks the footprint required and allows Home Theater to move into the Living Room. But even with close-in viewing our study shows that a fairly large screen size is required to achieve theater fields of view,” reports Steve Marsland, principal researcher and author of the study Home Entertainment: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast 2005, published by McLaughlin Consulting Group (MCG) and available through both MCG and Insight Media. “Only MD RPTV can economically deliver these large screen sizes in the near term. A significant window of opportunity is opening in larger screen sizes for MD RPTV.”

“MD RPTV sales did not realize full potential in 2004 due to dramatic price declines in plasma displays and inadequate signal processing capability for MD RPTVs”, says Chuck McLaughlin of MCG, editor of the report. “MD RPTV makers are now delivering HD sets that can be viewed close-in when showing standard definition content. Provided the industry properly positions and promotes MD RPTV, a major sales opportunity can be realized globally. ”

WHO SHOULD BUY AND WHY

The report is a comprehensive tool for marketing and supply chain professionals to understand the timing and scope of emerging opportunities and develop their company’s response to those opportunities:

• Consumer Big Screen TV Retailers – Understand price trends and margin attractiveness of MD RPTV through 2009, underlying cost elements of MD RPTVs
• MD RPTV Makers/Brands – Understand the competitive landscape from a technology and forecast pricing standpoint – product line implications of the MD RPTV opportunity
• Manufacturers of Competitive Big Screen TVs – Impact on PDP, LCD, CRT, RP CRT and front projection of the emerging MD RPTV threat
• Microdisplay RPTV Supply Chain – Anticipate the emerging demand trends and position for success with an understanding of key technology, performance and cost trends
• Microdisplay makers – Understand price and performance requirements and timing for the microdisplays to be incorporated in the new RPTV products

SCOPE AND QUESTIONS ADDRESSED

The study covers all big-screen TV sales globally over 30” in diagonal. All relevant technologies are addressed, not just MD RPTV. Two alternative scenarios (Optimistic and Conservative) are completely evaluated. Drill-down is provided into MD RPTV component costs and technology shares. The study addresses questions such as:

• How will prices trend over time on LCD, PDP and MD RPTV big-screen TVs?
• How fast will market share shift into the new technologies and why?
• Within MD RPTV, how will the technology alternatives (LCOS, HTPS, DMD) fare by segment?
• What are the key screen size battlegrounds for each display technology?
• Which technology will win in each battleground, and why?
• What key factors will affect the success of MD RPTV?
• What will the trend be in terms of definition for MD RPTVs?
• What will prices be for microdisplays over time?
• What are the key design architectures for MD RPTV and which architectures will succeed?
• How will the key suppliers (TI, Epson) react to the emerging opportunity?
• What are the prospects for LCOS technology to take share?

Technology Scope. The following display technologies are included:

• CRT
• LCD
• PDP
• SED
• RP CRT
• Front projection
• Microdisplay-based RPTV
  • LCOS: Liquid crystal on silicon
  • HTPS: High temperature polysilicon
  • DMD: Digital Micromirror Device

Market Scope. Global TV sales for screens over 30” diagonal

• Sold through normal retail channels
• Sold through custom installers (front projection)

CONTENTS

The 263-page study consists of 177 pages of analysis including text, color graphs and tables, plus 86 pages of company profiles, and includes:

• Overview of Optimistic and Conservative scenarios
• Forecast change in consumer purchases of big-screen TVs based on availability of new technology and product alternatives
• Detailed analysis for each scenario of sales by technology (LCD, CRT, PDP, SED, RP CRT, MD RPTV, and front projection) within each screen size battleground
• Forecast pricing on big-screen TVs for each technology
• Relative attractiveness of each technology to consumers (LCD, PDP, etc.)
• Competitive strengths and weaknesses of microdisplay technologies (DMD, HTPS, LCOS)
• Detailed forecast of the derived market in dollars and units for microdisplays by definition and technology (DMD, HTPS, LCOS)
• Summary high-level snapshot of all big-screen TVs models presently being sold
• Company profiles for 43 major or notable big screen TV makers/brands, including product line overview by technology with pricing. Profiles incorporate advanced graphic features to simplify the presentation of data and speed comprehension.

To view the table of contents: mcgweb.com/reports/he2005toc.htm

METHODOLOGY

The MCG study is based on a combination of sources. Information was gathered and compiled from industry sources and trade shows. Costs for MD RPTVs and for microdisplays were developed from MCG’s proprietary Projector Cost Model, just updated this summer based on inputs from industry experts about forward pricing on microdisplays and microdisplay components (see elsewhere on this website for description of the Projector Cost Model). Big-screen TV models, pricing and recent news were accessed from public information sources. All this was then evaluated with full analysis of recent industry, market and technology trends to develop the forecasts.

FORMAT

PDF file with site license when purchased.

SUPPORT FOR PURCHASERS OF REPORT

Available from the study’s principal researcher, Steve Marsland (contact info shown below).

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

The report been developed with extensive technical and analytical support. Steve Marsland was the principal researcher and analyst. Charles McLaughlin acted as senior author and final editor.

For more information contact: Steve Marsland stevemarsland@mcgweb.com 650 588-7558

SUBSCRIPTION

ORDER INFORMATION

Please use this PDF order form and fax it back to us as 650-319-1805 or contact Adrienne Hefter, info@mcgweb.com, telephone 650 323 1179. MCG office hours are 9-12 and 1-5 PST.

OTHER RELATED MCG STUDIES

Microdisplay Forecast Report 2005 Overall global forecast for all microdisplay applications: home entertainment (including rear and front-projection TV), presentation projectors, electronic viewfinders (EVF), and personal displays (headsets).