MCG Reports

BACKGROUND

A Major Opportunity Window for Microdisplays in Big Screen TVs

Microdisplay-based rear-projection televisions (MD RPTVs) have a major window of opportunity to grow sales as high as 22M units by 2008. This study incorporates the latest market intelligence from Infocomm 2004, HDTV Forum and CEDIA, as well as analysis of forecasts from six major display consulting firms. Forecasts from Decision Tree Consulting (DTC), DisplaySearch (DS), International Data Corp. (IDC), Pacific Media Associates (PMA), iSuppli/Stanford Resources (SR), and Techno Systems Research (TSR) were reviewed, compared and evaluated in developing the MCG forecast.

Two forecast scenarios were developed – the Optimistic Case at 22M and the Conservative Case at 11M. MCG’s forecast differs markedly from the six analysts in that it is significantly higher. The highest forecast from any of the six analysts was for 11M total RPTVs sold in 2008 (MD RPTV and CRT) whereas the low end of the MCG forecast is for 11M units of MD RPTV.

The MCG study is based on a new market segmentation approach focused on “technology battlegrounds.” The big screen TV market (over 30” diagonal) is segmented into screen size ranges where distinct and unique sets of display technologies are battling for market share. Microdisplay-based rear-projection TVs (MD RPTVs) have distinct competitive advantages in specific technology battlegrounds. By leveraging these competitive advantages, MD RPTV makers can achieve significant gains in market share.

For a more detailed look at a typical battleground analysis, see: mcgweb.com/reports/he2004/battleground.htm.

“Consumer demand and supply chain are both creating the foundation for very high growth in MD RPTV sales”, reports Steve Marsland, principal researcher and author of the study Home Entertainment: Opportunity Analysis and Forecast 2004, published by McLaughlin Consulting Group (MCG) and available through both MCG and Insight Media. “A significant window of opportunity is opening in larger screen sizes for MD RPTV.”

“Sales of MD RPTVs are already taking off today and major brands are adding full MD RPTV product lines right now MD RPTV is a very competitive entry positioned between flat-screen PDP and LCD TVs and traditional CRT technology”, says Chuck McLaughlin of MCG, editor of the report. “We have been tracking microdisplay markets for nearly a decade. We are now seeing the positive signals in consumer demand, sales channels, brand product lines and supply chain that make explosion in MD RPTV sales possible.”

For an overview of the report with sample graphics, see: mcgweb.com/reports/he2004/overview.htm.

WHO SHOULD BUY AND WHY

The report is a comprehensive tool for marketing and supply chain professionals to understand the timing and scope of emerging opportunities and develop their company’s response to those opportunities:

• Consumer Big Screen TV Retailers – Understand price trends and margin attractiveness of MD RPTV through 2008, underlying cost elements of MD RPTVs
• MD RPTV Makers/Brands – Understand the competitive landscape from a technology and forecast pricing standpoint – product line implications of the MD RPTV opportunity
• Manufacturers of Competitive Big Screen TVs – Impact on PDP, LCD, CRT, RP CRT and front projection of the emerging MD RPTV threat
• Microdisplay RPTV Supply Chain – Anticipate the emerging demand trends and position for success with an understanding of key technology, performance and cost trends
• Microdisplay makers – Understand price and performance requirements and timing for the microdisplays to be incorporated in the new RPTV products

SCOPE AND QUESTIONS ADDRESSED

The study covers all big-screen TV sales globally over 30” in diagonal. All relevant technologies are addressed, not just MD RPTV. Two alternative scenarios (Optimistic and Conservative) are completely evaluated. Drill-down is provided into MD RPTV component costs and technology shares. The study addresses questions such as:

• How will prices trend over time on LCD, PDP and MD RPTV big-screen TVs?
• How fast will market share shift into the new technologies and why?
• Within MD RPTV, how will the technology alternatives (LCOS, HTPS, DMD) fare by segment?
• What are the key screen size battlegrounds for each display technology?
• Which technology will win in each battleground, and why?
• What key factors will affect the success of MD RPTV?
• What will the trend be in terms of definition for MD RPTVs?
• What will prices be for microdisplays over time?
• What are the key design architectures for MD RPTV and which architectures will succeed?
• How will the key suppliers (TI, Epson) react to the emerging opportunity?
• What are the prospects for LCOS technology to take share?

Technology Scope. The following display technologies are included:

• CRT
• LCD
• PDP
• RP CRT
• Front projection
• Microdisplay-based RPTV
• LCOS: Liquid crystal on silicon
• HTPS: High temperature polysilicon
• DMD: Digital Micromirror Device

Market Scope. Global TV sales for screens over 30” diagonal

• Sold through normal retail channels
• Sold through custom installers (front projection)

CONTENTS

The 240-page study consists of 160 pages of analysis including text, color graphs and tables, plus 60 pages of company profiles, and includes:

• Overview of Optimistic and Conservative scenarios
• Forecast change in consumer purchases of big-screen TVs based on availability of new technology and product alternatives
• Detailed basis for forecast including overview of the six analysts’ forecasts (DTC, DS, IDC, PMA, SR, and TSR presented at Infocomm 2004
• Detailed analysis for each scenario of sales by technology (LCD, CRT, PDP, RP CRT, MD RPTV, and front projection) within each screen size battleground
• Forecast pricing on big-screen TVs for each technology
• Relative attractiveness of each technology to consumers (LCD, PDP, etc.)
• Competitive strengths and weaknesses of microdisplay technologies (DMD, HTPS, LCOS)
• Detailed forecast of the derived market in dollars and units for microdisplays by definition and technology (DMD, HTPS, LCOS)
• Variable cost and margin breakdown for MD RPTVs by screen size in 2008
• Summary high-level snapshot of all big-screen TVs models presently being sold
• Company profiles for 29 major or notable big screen TV makers/brands, including product line overview by technology with pricing. Profiles incorporate advanced graphic features to simplify the presentation of data and speed comprehension.

To see a sample profile for Sony go to: mcgweb.com/reports/he2004/sonyprofile.htm or to view the table of contents: mcgweb.com/reports/he2004/toc.htm

METHODOLOGY

The MCG study is based on a combination of sources. Information was gathered and compiled from Infocomm 2004, HDTV Forum and CEDIA including forecasts from the six industry consulting firms. Costs for MD RPTVs and for microdisplays were developed from MCG’s proprietary Projector Cost Model, just updated this summer based on inputs from 12 industry experts about forward pricing on microdisplays and microdisplay components (see elsewhere on this website for description of the Projector Cost Model). Big-screen TV models, pricing and recent news were accessed from public information sources. All this was then evaluated with full analysis of recent industry, market and technology trends to develop the forecasts.

FORMAT

Printed hard copy and .pdf file both provided.

SUPPORT FOR PURCHASERS OF REPORT

Available from the study’s principal researcher, Steve Marsland (contact info shown below).

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

The report been developed with extensive technical and analytical support. Steve Marsland was the principal researcher and analyst. Charles McLaughlin acted as senior author and final editor.

For more information contact: Steve Marsland stevemarsland@mcgweb.com 650 588-7558

SUBSCRIPTION

ORDER INFORMATION

Please use this PDF order form and fax it back to us as 650-319-1805 or contact Adrienne Hefter, info@mcgweb.com, telephone 650 323 1179. MCG office hours are 9-12 and 1-5 PST.

OTHER RELATED MCG STUDIES

Microdisplay Forecast Report 2004 Overall global forecast for all microdisplay applications: home entertainment (including rear and front-projection TV), presentation projectors, electronic viewfinders (EVF), and personal displays (headsets).